I know times are tough. The economy has experienced a fundamental shift. Almost overnight, entire sectors of jobs have disappeared, never to return. Technology and automation have made many positions obsolete. For the lectors, pinsetters, icemen, copyboys and typesetters out there, prospects for employment are bleak.
If you’re wondering what a lector is or a pinsetter, they were the victims of the last revolution, the industrial one. During a span of years that extended from roughly 1790 to 1860, a revolution took place around the world, where changes in manufacturing, transportation and technology fundamentally altered social, economic and cultural conditions around the world.
If it sounds all too familiar, it’s because we’re in the midst of another revolution, the Information Revolution, now. As Dylan said, “Times they are a changin’” and many of us are just standing still, jaws wide open, wondering why we have become its victims.
I’m sure if Facebook was around back in the last revolution, the prospects of many would sound as bleak. One time weavers in mills were suddenly put out on the streets as steam powered machinery did their jobs faster and better. Mill automation has gone so far today that there’s a joke in cotton country that the average mill has just two employees – a man and a dog. The man is there to feed the dog and the dog is there to keep the man away from the machines.
It’s both humorous and unsettling at the same time. But the simple truth is employment won’t come down until we embrace the world as it is and adapt, just as our ancestors had to do when they went to work one day and found out their job for 20 years was gone because someone automated elevators so they didn’t need an operator any longer.
We’re in the midst of a revolution, folks. It didn’t start yesterday. The train of change has been coming down the track for nearly 20 years now and we’re probably only about halfway through the tremendous changes the Information Revolution is causing at every level of society. Just as electricity and electric lights changed the very face of our world generations ago, computers are doing the same as they become smaller, smarter and more widespread.
There’s nothing we can do about it either. To compound the problem, factories in the U.S. are cutting jobs faster than ever before – one out of three jobs in manufacturing has disappeared in the last decade or so – 6 million jobs that aren’t coming back.
Oh, it’s great to wish that the good old days would return. But let me say it again – these jobs aren’t coming back.
Why? Because other countries don’t care about the environment or the quality of life as much as Americans do. We used to put up with sweat shops that employed children in deplorable conditions in the name of progress. But we want to think we’re above that now. China? They don’t care. Case in point. In a recent article in The New York Times, it was reported that Apple needed to revamp its iPhone screens at the last minute. At midnight, the foreman at the plant woke up the 8,000 workers in the dormitories on-site and within 96 hours, fueled by a biscuit and a cup of tea, workers churned out 10,000 iPhones a day. We can’t match that here. We couldn’t even dream of it. Worse, if a business here needs a new plant, they can get one in China, ready to go, in six months, not six years.
Old ways of doing things will continue to melt away. If you’re a waitress, yes, that old fall back job that you took until something better came along, you’d better think about going back to school. Restaurants are beginning to install iPads that will replace you. Customers can look through the interactive menu, choose exactly what they want and the order is sent straight to the kitchen without any transcription errors. Want another drink? Punch a button on the iPad and the bar gets your order wirelessly. There’s no need to hunt down a clueless or rude waitress because you wanted your dressing on the side and she forgot to write it down. And while your food is prepared, play games on the iPad to pass the time or look at the nutritional information about the dessert you’re thinking about. When you’re done, you pay right then and there. Split the check if you want with a couple touches on the screen. It’s OK, the iPad doesn’t mind.
Why would restaurants flock to this? The cost of renting a console is $100 per month. If the restaurant is open every day for eight hours, the cost comes out to 42¢ per table per hour.
But that’s just the beginning. If you have an iPhone 4 and have already fallen in love with Siri, expect it that technology to spread like wildfire, from being used in banks to retail. How will that advance affect jobs?
The truth is, revolution happens all the time. It is a messy business. You can’t turn the clock back in a revolution. Once you head down the road, there’s no U-turns.
That doesn’t mean you should give up. Hardly. Education is the key, just as it always has been. Don’t let anyone sell you on the belief that you don’t need a good education.
Don’t believe me? Check out this statistic from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We all hear about 8.5% unemployment. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. For Americans over 25 who never graduated from high school the unemployment rate is 13.8%, those with a high school diploma, 8.7%, those with some college, 7.7% and those with at least a B.A., just 4.1%.
There is always opportunity in any revolution. Your challenge is to look beyond the horizon and see where we are going. Skate to where the puck will be, not where it is now, to paraphrase hockey great Wayne Gretzky.
Embrace the revolution, folks. It’s here to stay. You only have two choices now. One is to become a revolutionary. The other is to stand by the wayside and watch the world continue to change before your very eyes while you become irrelevent. Times, they are a changin’, are you?
Out in the Emerald City, changing my life and underwear today,
– Robb